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Thailand, along with many other countries, was hit by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The COVID-19 vaccines were known to be effective in mitigating the spread and preventing deaths. However, Thailand faced a crisis in mid-2021 before the vaccines could disseminated to the population. Thus, the Government introduced a lockdown policy to control the outbreak. However, many questioned the effectiveness of the policy as it did not immediately result in favorable outcomes. Therefore, this study aimed to unravel results of the lockdown using deterministic system dynamics and compartmental models. We found that there was a misperception surrounding the idea that the lockdown policy could reduce the number of newly reported cases within few days. In addition, the epidemic would always continue as long as there were susceptible people remaining in the system. Therefore, the Government needs to consider other supporting policies alongside the lockdown and communicate with the wider public about its objectives.
Keywords: COVID-19, lockdown policy, compartment model, system dynamic, Thailand
Article in English